Macros 2016

How the economy shaped up during the year 2016… As year 2016 approaches its end, it is time to look back at the key macro trends for the year. The year was positive in some ways and challenging in other ways. Here are four macros that defined the year 2016… GDP falters in second half……

Tata Group

The group now needs to look beyond the immediate battle… The acrimonious battle between the Tata faction and the Mistry faction almost ended in a whimper with Cyrus Mistry resigning from the boards of all the Tata group companies. With the removal of Nusli Wadia also from key boards, the Tata group may not face…

MPC Minutes

Again, a consensus within the MPC on the rate decision… Like the first meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), the second meeting of the MPC also saw 100% consensus among its 6 members. Three distinct trends emerge from the minutes of the MPC, with important cues for the road ahead for monetary policy. Non-food…

Trade Deficit

Early days yet, but some reasons to worry about… Trade deficit for the month of November 2016 came in at a 2-year high of above $13 billion. While this is a normal cycle in any year, there are some areas of concern that need to be addressed. Here are four of them… Gold imports going…

Brent Crude Rally

Does the oil rally have more steam left? Brent Crude prices have rallied sharply since the OPEC meeting on November 30th when oil quotas were agreed upon. However, after an 18% rally the oil prices have stagnated. Does oil really have much more steam left? Wait for the implementation… That is still some time away.…

Fed Rate Hike

The impact will not be anything as bad as last year… As the Fed hiked rates by 25 basis points on December 14th, it brought back memories of the last rate hike in December 2015 when the global markets lost nearly $12 trillion in terms of market capitalization. The question is whether such a scenario…

Big Risks for 2017

In fact, risks could come from a variety of sources… In a recent report, global investment bank, Nomura, has identified some key global risks for the year 2017. Here is a summary of the key risks perceived for the calendar year 2017… Europe in turmoil… This is probably the biggest risk for the year 2017.…

RBI Monetary Policy

Status quo on rates was, probably, the right decision… The markets were largely disappointed by the decision of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to maintain status quo on rates. The expectation was for a 25-50 bps cut in rates. However, the choice of the MPC not to cut rates was a good decision in retrospect.…

Flipkart Downgrade

It will now be a return to realism for ecommerce… The recent decision of Morgan Stanley to write down its investment in Flipkart pegs the market value of Flipkart at $5.5 billion. That is substantially lower than the valuation of $12 billion that the company had received a couple of years ago. What does this…