June Credit Policy

RBI could interject with a 25 basis points rate hike… Most reports coming out ahead of the June credit policy appear to be hinting at a status quo on rates. The RBI has been expressing concerns over prices but the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has generally veered towards a status quo on rates. However, June…

Equity Fund Flows

Flows continue unabated in Feb despite the LTCG overhang… At a time when the markets were worrying about the impact of LTCG on the equity fund flows, AMFI data for February shows otherwise. Consider the statistics. During the month of February, equity funds and ELSS schemes saw a net inflow of Rs.16,300 crore with more…

Crude Oil Prices

Shale output could hold the key to future oil prices… Between July 2017 and January 2018 the price of Brent Crude went up from $45/bbl to $70/bbl. While the price has toned down to $64/bbl, oil analysts are betting on oil prices staying elevated till the year 2020. Here is why! Supply cuts to continue……

Fed Rate Hike

This 25 bps could just be the beginning in a series of hikes… As the 2-day meet of the Federal Reserve concluded on Wednesday, the rate hike of 25 basis points was almost a fait accompli. Analysts and economists had long seen this coming. What was more significant was that this was Janet Yellen’s last…

Investor’s Dilemma

We may have seen the beginning of a major market re-rating… The day after the bank recapitalization package was announced, there was a frenetic rally in PSU banking stocks. This rally not only took the Bank Nifty to a new high but even propelled the Nifty index to an all-time high beyond the 10,300 levels.…

Tale of 2 Results

ICICI Bank disappoints; Hindustan Unilever flatters… The results season is not yet over and there are still some of the key banking results to be announced. But with the major companies already having announced their results, there are 2 things that stand out. Firstly, there is a sense of disappointment over the quarterly results of…

Boost for PSU Banks

Finally, there seems to be the much needed credit boost… When the government announced the unprecedented Rs.2.11 trillion bank rescue package this week, it did stir a sense of euphoria. A day after the announcement the PSU banks were up anywhere between 20% and 45%. The question is whether this package is actually a boost…

Fiscal Deficit Target

Should the government give up on its fiscal discipline? The first quarter GDP at 5.7% and the GVA at 5.6% came in as a shock to the markets and to policy makers. In fact, the government has shown alacrity and hinted at a special fiscal package of $7.7 billion to boost growth in the Indian…

October Policy

RBI is likely to maintain status quo on rates… With the month of September almost coming to a close, the question shifts to the stance of the RBI in the forthcoming credit policy in October. Remember, the RBI may have cut rates by nearly 200 bps since January 2015 but the CPI inflation during this…

The Bullet Train

The Japanese funding model is not all that simple! It was, in many ways, called the deal of the century. The Japanese prime minister traveled down to India to lay the foundation stone for the project. Of course, the tougher job of acquiring the land, getting the clearances and actually executing the job is still…